It has been a two years since I’ve done this but let’s try my luck again. This year oddly there are in most categories a lot of things I agree with so it will be less contentious than previous rounds of predictions. Importantly, just flagging up top how awesome it is that the film that now holds the record for most nominations is a horror film about people of colour directed by a black director- so happy for Sinners even if I think its wins will mainly come in the the technical categories.
I’m not going to predict the docos, shorts, or animated films as I’ve not seen enough of them. I do think the one animated nominee I’ve seen has a lock on the award though (yes K-Pop Demon Hunters is the only animated nominee I’ve seen).
If you want my speed points, I would have liked less nominees from sports (or IMHO “sports” as motor racing is not a sport) films and more love for Korean paper workers and films directed by Richard Linklater. Though if you read details I have thoughts on best actor…tin foil hat style thoughts.
In detail predictions:
Best Picture
Nominees- Bugonia, F1, Frankenstein, Hamnet, Marty Supreme, One Battle After Another, The Secret Agent, Sentimental Value, and Train Dreams
Shouldn’t be nominated in my opinion- both sport films. I’ve not seen nor do I plan on seeing F1, but unpopular opinion I nearly fell sleep in Marty Supreme
Should be nominated but isn’t- No Other Choice, and It was just an Accident. Also these are outliers as they didn’t get heaps of nominations elsewhere but I would have liked to see Sorry, Baby, Nouvelle Vague, and The Mastermind get nominations.
What I’d like to win- honestly remove the sports films and most of these I’m OK with. I personally would love a Hamnet or Sinners win
What will win- Either One Battle After Another or Hamnet. I suspect one takes this and the other takes director and I would hazard this will go to One Battle After Another and Chloe Zhao will win for directing Hamnet
Best Director
Nominees- Chloe Zhao for Hamnet, Josh Safdie for Marty Supreme, Paul Thomas Anderson for One Battle After Another, Joachim Trier for Sentimental Value, and Ryan Coogler for Sinners
Shouldn’t be nominated in my opinion- Josh Safdie
Should be nominated but isn’t- Richard Linklater for either Blue Moon or Nouvelle Vague, and Park Chan-wook for No Other Choice. I may be biased as these two have been two of my favourite directors for a long while but it is bonkers to me that Park is yet to get a directing nom at the Oscars, and that Linklater is yet to win and with two Linklater films this year, it would have been the perfect time to make up for not awarding him for Boyhood.
What I’d like to win- again remove the sports film and any of these are fine. I would say I would most like Zhao or Coogler to win.
What will win- As mentioned I suspect they will split director and best film between One Battle After Another and Hamnet, and I do suspect this will go to Zhao.
Best Actor in a Leading Role
Nominees- Timothee Chalamet for Marty Supreme, Leonardo DiCaprio for One Battle After Another, Ethan Hawke for Blue Moon, Michael B. Jordan for Sinners, and Wagner Moura for The Secret Agent
Shouldn’t be nominated in my opinion- Chalamet
Should be nominated but isn’t- I call conspiracy! I see you Oscars and you setting up to award this to the person who I think shouldn’t be nominated. It is beyond insane that Paul Mescal is not nominated for Hamnet and I cannot not see this as the Academy removing the strongest contender for the type of role it likes to award (since it isn’t big on awarded foreign language films in this category or people of colour or people called DiCaprio, and though I think Hawke is amazing in Blue Moon it hasn’t win any lead up awards) from the mix. Though removing the tin foil hat, a friend did suggest that maybe the studio for Hamnet put Mescal up for supporting which is bonkers in IMHO but it is a tighter category which might explain him missing out.
I would also would have loved nominations for Jesse Plemons for Bugonia, Joel Edgerton for Train Dreams, Guillaume Marbeck for Nouvelle Vague, Josh O’Connor for The Mastermind, and Lee Byung-hun for No Other Choice
Who I’d like to win- I would love the Oscars to go against type and award Moura. That said again sport film aside, fine with any of these winning
Who will win- Chalamet
Best Actress in a Leading Role
Nominees- Jessie Buckley for Hamnet, Rose Byrne for If I Had Legs I’d Kick You, Kate Hudson for Song Sung Blue, Renate Reinsve for Sentimental Value, and Emma Stone for Bugonia
Shouldn’t be nominated in my opinion- oddly no-one, I have someone I would add in but largely this is a solid group of nominees
Should be nominated but isn’t- Eva Victor for Sorry, Baby
Who I’d like to win- Rose Byrne. I think all of these performances are great and I know she isn’t likely to win but this performance was a revelation and Byrne deserves her flowers.
Who will win- Buckley which honestly I’m not bummed about but I just thought Byrne was a tiny bit better.
Best Actor in a Supporting Role
Nominees- Benicio del Toro for One Battle After Another, Jacob Elordi in Frankenstein, Delroy Lindo in Sinners, Sean Penn for One Battle After Another, and Stellan Skarsgard for Sentimental Value
Shouldn’t be nominated in my opinion- again no-one. These were all good.
Should be nominated but isn’t- I would have been here for more Sinners noms in this category namely Miles Caton and Jack O’Connell. Also Andrew Scott for Blue Moon
Who I’d like to win- Jacob Elordi- I have waited so long for a decent Frankenstein adaptation and Elordi was amazing as the monster. I know between this and best actress I seem to be backing Aussies but I do think both Byrne and Elordi were outstanding beyond me being biased by patriotism.
Who will win- Skarsgard and again I’m OK with this- I’m OK with any of these nominees winning, I would just like Elordi to.
Best Actress in a Supporting Role
Nominees- Elle Fanning for Sentimental Value, Inga Ibsdotter Lilleeaas for Sentimental Value, Amy Madigan for Weapons, Wunmi Mosaku for Sinners, and Teyana Taylor for One Battle After Another
Shouldn’t be nominated- once again no-one, Except for the lead actor category, I have no qualms with the acting noms
Should be nominated but isn’t- Zoey Deutch for Nouvelle Vague, Margaret Qualley for Blue Moon, and Hailee Steinfeld for Sinners
Who I’d like to see win- Madigan as I live for Gladys
Who will win- Madigan- with all the horror noms in the non technical categories, they need to award one somewhere I suspect this is where.
Best Original Screenplay
Nominees- Blue Moon, It was Just an Accident, Marty Supreme, Sentimental Value, and Sinners
Shouldn’t be nominated- Marty Supreme
Should be nominated but isn’t- Sorry Baby
What I’d like to see win- Sinners or Blue Moon
What will win- actually not sure- I think the bigger screenplay fight this year is in the adapted category. I suspect they might award Marty Supreme
Best Adapted Screenplay
Nominees- Bugonia, Frankenstein, Hamnet, One Battle After Another, and Train Dreams
Shouldn’t be nominated- it was a year for excellent adapted screenplays and I have no qualms with any of these nominees
Should be nominated but isn’t- No Other Choice
What I’d like to see win- One Battle After Another
What will win- One Battle After Another
Best International Film
Nominees- It was just an Accident, The Secret Agent, Sentimental Value, Sirat, and The Voices of Hind Rajab
Shouldn’t be nominated- I cannot speak for two of them as I’ve not seen them (super keen for Sirat which is out in Australia soon) but generally fine with these
Should be nominated but isn’t- you can likely guess as I’ve mentioned it in a lot of categories… No Other Choice
What I’d like to see win- Sentimental Value
What will win- I think it will come down to the acting categories if the male acting categories go to The Secret Agent and Sentimental Value, this will go to It was just an Accident. It is a battle between those three and I suspect that it will be It Was Just An Accident as the other two though brilliant do strongly hang on the performances.
Best Music (Score)
Nominees- Bugonia, Frankenstein, Hamnet, One Battle After Another, and Sinners
Shouldn’t be nominated- none of these- there is a clear should win here and it is nominated so the other nominees don’t matter
Should be nominated but isn’t- see last comment
What I’d like to see win- it will be flat bonkers if this goes to anyone other than Ludwig Goransson for Sinners- it is not just the best music in a film in the window for these nominees but also one of the best for the last five years to a decade- along with every other Goransson score.
What will win- Sinners- unless the voters are high
Best Music (Original Song)
Nominees- “Dear Me” from Diana Warren: Relentless, “Golden” from K-Pop Demon Hunters, “I Lied to You” from Sinners, “Sweet Dreams of Joy” from Viva Verdi!, and “Train Dreams” from Train Dreams
Shouldn’t be nominated- I’m happy with the three songs from films I’ve seen being nominated- don’t know the other two so cannot comment
Should be nominated but isn’t- I wasn’t a fan of the second Wicked film (it should have been a single film) but I did think “Girl in the Bubble” should have got a look in here as it was a lovely song that Ariana Grande performed well that fit seamlessly into the existing vibe of Wicked
What I’d like to see win- I love “I Lied to You” and if it weren’t up against a juggernaut, it would have won but I suspect they will award the more popular song
What will win- “Golden”- I don’t hate this as it is a great song but I just like “I Lied to You” more (bonkers that the Nick Cave fan in me isn’t saying “Train Dreams” should or will win)
Best Casting
Nominees- Hamnet, Marty Supreme, One Battle After Another, The Secret Agent, and Sinners
Shouldn’t be nominated- this is predictable but Marty Supreme, I don’t think it should be nominated in any category
Should be nominated but isn’t- Sentimental Value (with four acting noms HOW is it not nominated- seriously it tied with Sinners for the most acting noms), Blue Moon, and Frankenstein
What I’d like to see win- One Battle After Another or Sinners
What will win- I suspect the Academy might be on the same page as me with this one- One Battle After Another or Sinners
Best Sound
Nominees- F1, Frankenstein, One Battle After Another, Sinners, or Sirat
Shouldn’t be nominated- Since I’ve not seen F1 or Sirat, I think all of these are fine as a car film needs to have good sound editing (so I will let the “sport” film through)
Should be nominated but isn’t- I don’t have a film this year that blew me away from a sound editing POV so don’t have anything to add
What I’d like to see win- Sirat- I’m just going off trailers but the use of sound looks excellent. Otherwise Sinners
What will win- F1 (they nominated it in a few categories and they might just award it here) or Sinners
Best Production Design
Nominees- Frankenstein, Hamnet, Marty Supreme, One Battle After Another, and Sinners
Shouldn’t be nominated- Marty Supreme
Should be nominated but isn’t- The Secret Agent
What I’d like to see win- Frankenstein or Sinners
What will win- Sinners or Hamnet
Best Cinematography
Nominees- Frankenstein, Marty Supreme, One Battle After Another, Sinners, and Train Dreams
Shouldn’t be nominated- Marty Supreme
Should be nominated but isn’t- No Other Choice
What I’d like to see win- Sinners
What will win- Sinners
Best Make Up and Hair
Nominees- Frankenstein, Kokuho, Sinners, The Smashing Machine, and The Ugly Stepsister
Shouldn’t be nominated- I’ve not seen three of these so cannot make a call on this
Should be nominated but isn’t- again no strong thoughts as there is a clear winner I think
What I’d like to see win- Frankenstein
What will win- Frankenstein
Best Costume Design
Nominees- Avatar: Fire and Ash, Frankenstein, Hamnet, Marty Supreme, and Sinners
Shouldn’t be nominated- no blue cat people should be nominated for any category ever (urgh Avatar just no). I will be nice and say that Marty Supreme is fine here just for Gwyneth Paltrow
Should be nominated but isn’t- Fantastic Four: First Steps - I love me some retro-futurism and some 60s fashion. Also Song Sung Blue for its chaotic 90s fashions
What I’d like to see win- Sinners
What will win- Sinners or maybe Frankenstein
Best Film Editing
Nominees- F1, Marty Supreme, One Battle After Another, Sentimental Value, and Sinners
Shouldn’t be nominated- Marty Supreme and likely F1
Should be nominated but isn’t- It was just an Accident and Nouvelle Vague
What I’d like to see win- Sinners
What will win- Sinners or maybe One Battle After Another
Best Visual Effects
Nominees- Avatar: Fire and Ash, F1, Jurassic World Rebirth, The Lost Bus, and Sinners
Shouldn’t be nominated- most of the nominees. It is bonkers that Jurassic World Rebirth is Oscar nominated, but aside from that anything that isn’t Sinners should not be nominated with the possible exception of The Lost Bus which I’ve not seen
Should be nominated but isn’t- Superman, Fantastic Four: First Steps, Thunderbolts, and Frankenstein- seriously did the Academy forget that we had THREE good comic book films this year.
What I’d like to see win- this category’s nominees just mean that there is only one answer here and that is Sinners
What will win- for the above reason, Sinners
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And there you have it, my predictions. We will see how I go come Oscars night but with the exception of two or three categories, I don’t think I disagree with the Academy too much this year- which either scares me a tad or means they are starting to see sense.
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