Post Oscars...how did my predicting go?

So I predicted the Oscars....let's fuss up on how I did with that and the answer, fairly well but ranting is forthcoming.

Before I start on that, I just saw If Beale Street Could Talk and ROBBED. That film should have been nominated for and won much more than it did. Predicting now, it will be a solid top five finish in my top films of the year.

Back to Oscars...

Best Picture
My preferred winner- Roma
My predicted winner- A Star is Born or Green Book
Actual winner- Green Book

Might be one of the only people who called this one as there was a lot of industry support for Roma and a lot of money behind A Star is Born and Bohemian Rhapsody. Do I think Green Book deserved to win? I don't know, I've not seen it and in all honesty, I'm not likely to until it is streaming somewhere. From what I have heard it is not as good as Roma, The Favourite, BlacKkKlansman, and Black Panther- which would also make it not as good as If Beale Street Could Talk (which wasn't even nominated (HOW??)), and all of the nominated foreign language films that I had seen. I predicted it based on the type of film the academy tends to award (yes I think Moonlight a few years ago was a blip where they went against type (it is a better film than La La Land but money was on La La Land that year)). 

Best Actor
My preferred winner- Rami Malek
My predicted winner- Rami Malek
Actual winner- Rami Malek

The no-one is shocked at all category of the year. Christian Bale had only taken one award of the major awards out there so this was Malek's to lose and it would be been a giant upset if he hadn't won.

Best Actress
My preferred winner- Olivia Colman
My predicted winner- Lady Gaga or Glen Close
Actual winner- Olivia Colman

This made me SO happy!!! Colman completely deserved the award and I was terrified that she was at long odds of getting it. Thankfully solid acting skills won over crowd favouritism (Gaga) or legacy (Close). Not that the others gave bad performance (granted haven't seen The Wife) but no performance (by anyone) last year was as good as Colman's in my opinion.

Supportings (combining them as no-one was shocked)
My preferred winners- Sam Rockwell and Rachel Weisz or Regina King
My predicted winners- Mahershala Ali and Regina King
Actual winners- Mahershala Ali and Regina King

Much like lead actor not much to say as this was very predictable, except to say now that I've seen If Beale Street Could Talk, King's win was insanely well deserved and where were the rest of the acting noms for that film?

Best Director
My preferred winner- Alfonso Cuaron but generally OK with most of the nominees taking it out
My predicted winner- Alfonso Cuaron or Spike Lee
Actual winner- Alfonso Cuaron

Again it is a zero shock outcome. Aside from a possible legacy award to Lee, this was Cuaron's to lose.

Best Original Screenplay
My preferred winner- The Favourite
My predicted winner- The Favourite or Roma
Actual winner- Green Book

First category where I was completely off and all I can say it is INSANE that The Favourite did not win this. I cannot see in any universe how Green Book could have a better screenplay than the delight that was the quick wit of The Favourite's screenplay and from the reviews I've seen/heard it doesn't...

Best Adapted Screenplay
My preferred winner- BlacKkKlansman
My predicted winner- BlacKkKlansman or If Beale Street Could Talk
Actual winner- BlacKkKlansman

I don't care if this is in part Spike Lee's legacy Oscar, it is so well deserved.

Best Cinematography
My preferred winner- Roma
My predicted winner- Roma
Actual winner- Roma

It would been straight up insane if Roma hadn't won because its strongest competition wasn't nominated. No shade to Cold War which also has amazing cinematography or to The Favourite which also is pretty solid (I've not seen Never Look Away but I understand also a worthy nominee), but that A Star is Born was nominated for cinematography and If Beale Street Could Talk (the film that most would have been Roma a fight) wasn't, is straight up bonkers BUT that is before you get to the next level crazy of the next award...

Best Editing
My preferred winner- BlacKkKlansman
My predicted winner- BlacKkKlansman (I went so far as to say there would be little justice in the world if it lost to anything but maybe The Favourite)
Actual winner- Bohemian Rhapsody

WHAT IN THE ACTUAL?!?!?! Yep time for some rants. Bohemian Rhapsody's editing much like everything else about the film except its lead performance was the most middling form of average that there is. I cannot speak to Green Book but the three other nominees (BlacKkKlansman, The Favourite and Vice) were all insanely better edited as were If Beale Street Could Talk, Roma, Cold War, and actual many other things I saw in the last year. Did all the academy voters just opt to throw Bohemian Rhapsody a bone because it spent so much on its campaign?!?!  Is it there way to validate of the greater madness of the Globes giving it Best Drama? Flat out lunacy!!!!

Best Production Design
My preferred winner- Black Panther
My predicted winner- Black Panther or The Favourite
Actual winner- Black Panther

Let's be honest. The Academy was never going to let Black Panther win best picture (and rightly so in my opinion even though I deeply loved the film). The technical categories were always where it was going to shine and shine it did.

Best Costumes
My preferred winner- Black Panther
My predicted winner- Black Panther or The Favourite
Actual winner- Black Panther

See above as it applies here too.

Best Hair and Make-Up
My preferred winner- Vice
My predicted winner- Vice
Actual winner- Vice

This is another "duh" category except to say they likely would have heard my rage from Hollywood had they stupidly given this to Mary Queen of Scots

Best Score
My preferred winner- Black Panther
My predicted winner- Black Panther
Actual winner- Black Panther

Hells yeah for more awards for Black Panther. Though I hope the finish between this and Beale Street was tight...

Best Original Song
My preferred winner- "All the Stars" from Black Panther
My predicted winner- "Shallow" from A Star is Born
Actual winner- "Shallow"

This was a gimme for A Star is Born. It is a beautiful song even I prefer me some Kendrick and this was the place to acknowledge the quality of A Star is Born instead of the acting or technical categories.

Best Sound Mix
My preferred winner- First Man (which I still haven't seen but based on what I've heard) or Black Panther
My predicted winner- First Man
Actual winner- Bohemian Rhapsody

Not as angry about this one as I am about editing and the next category (maybe because I had clear favourites in the other two) BUT surely what is with all the awards for Bohemian Rhapsody??? Just nope... (except for lead actor)

Best Sound Editing
My preferred winner- A Quiet Place
My predicted winner- if sanity reigned, A Quiet Place, maybe First Man though as the Academy doesn't love horror
Actual winner- Bohemian Rhapsody

See editing rant but replace all of the other films mentioned with A Quiet Place all in caps, all the time, repeatedly. FLAT OUT WRONG!!!!!!! No justice and sanity in the world of sound editing and it makes me think the voters in the academy don't even know what good sound editing sounds like!!

Best Visual Effects
My preferred winner- Avengers: Infinity War
My predicted winner- Infinity Wars or First Man
Actual winner- First Man

The nominees in this category were a hot mess and it really came down to just two films. First Man also missed out in a lot of categories that it was touted to win or even be nominated in so this was a good spot to give a nod to it- that said it lost a lot of those categories to insanity (see above).

Best Animated Film
My preferred winner- Spiderman: Into the Spider-verse
My predicted winner- Spiderman: Into the Spider-verse
Actual winner- Spiderman: Into the Spider-verse

Another obvious one but it made me happy to see it still.

Best Foreign Film
My preferred winner- Roma
My predicted winner- Roma
Actual winner- Roma

One final obvious one...it would have been crazy for it not to take out this award as it was the only one of the nominees in for Best Picture.

As you'll recall I didn't predict docos or shorts so that is it...

Final tally- completely wrong in four categories and I am putting that down to a combo of insanity (google it folks, most of the world agrees with me that the Bohemian Rhapsody awards aside from lead actor were straight up bananas) or sentiment (that is my theory for Green Book for screenplay anyway). All in all, well predicted I think...

Let's predict some Oscars....

I normally don't do this but let's give in a go. Let's predict the 2019 Oscars...

Best Picture

The Nominees
Roma
BlacKkKlansman
Black Panther
A Star is Born
Bohemian Rhapsody
The Favourite 
Vice
Green Book

What should win- Roma 
What will likely win- A Star is Born (it has the big financial backing) or Green Book (I haven't seen it but it seems to be resonating with people in the States)
What shouldn't be nominated- Bohemian Rhapsody (may scream if it wins)

Best Actor
The nominees
Bradley Cooper for A Star is Born
Rami Malek for Bohemian Rhapsody
Viggo Mortensen for Green Book
Willem Dafoe for At Eternity's Gate
Christian Bale for Vice

Who should win- Rami Malek
Who will likely win- Rami Malek
Who should be nominated but isn't- John David Washington for BlacKkKlansman (He wouldn't have had a shot at winning against Malek but the performance is at least on par with Cooper)

Best Actress
The nominees
Glenn Close for The Wife
Lady Gaga for A Star is Born
Olivia Colman for The Favourite
Melissa McCarthy for Can you ever forgive me?
Yalitza Aparicio for Roma

Who should win- Olivia Colman (it is really a supporting performance but it is regardless one of the best of the year)
Who will likely win- Glenn Close or Lady Gaga

Best Supporting Actor
The nominees
Adam Driver for BlacKkKlansman
Mahershala Ali for Green Book
Richard E Grant for Can you ever forgive me?
Sam Rockwell for Vice
Sam Elliot for A Star is Born

Who should win- Sam Rockwell
Who will likely win- Mahershala Ali (again haven't seen Green Book but I understand that this is a wrong category deal and should be in the lead bucket. There have been racism allegations against the fact Ali was pushed for supporting but in all honesty I doubt he would beat Malek for lead but he will likely take the supporting out)
Who should also be nominated but isn't- Topher Grace for BlacKkKlansman

Best Supporting Actress
The nominees
Amy Adams for Vice
Emma Stone for The Favourite
Rachel Weisz for the Favourite
Regina King for If Beale Street Could Talk
Marina de Tavira for Roma

Who should win- Rachel Weisz or if the buzz is anything to go by, Regina King
Who will likely win- Regina King

Best Director
The nominees
Adam Mckay for Vice
Alfonso Cuaron for Roma
Pawel Pawlikowski for Cold War
Spike Lee for BlacKkKlansman
Yorgos Lanthimos for The Favourite

Who should win- I'd be pretty happy for anyone except Adam McKay to win. If I had to pick, Alfonso Cuaron
Who will likely win- Alfonso Cuaron (unless the award Spike Lee to make up for the all the times he should have been nominated and wasn't)

Best Original Screenplay
The nominees
First Reformed
Green Book
Vice
The Favourite
Roma

What should win- The Favourite
What will likely win- The Favourite or Roma
What should be nominated but isn't- Sorry to Bother you

Best Adapted Screenplay
The nominees
The Ballad of Buster Scruggs
Can you ever Forgive me?
A Star is Born
BlacKkKlansman
If Beale Street Could Talk

What should win- BlacKkKlansman
What will likely win- If Beale Street Could Talk or BlacKkKlansman

Best Cinematography
The nominees
Roma
Cold War
A Star is Born
Never Look Away
The Favourite

What should win- Roma
What will likely win- Roma
What shouldn't be nominated- A Star is Born

Best Editing
The nominees
Bohemian Rhapsody
BlacKkKlansman
Vice
Green Book
The Favourite

What should win- BlacKkKlansman
What will likely win- if there is justice in the world, BlacKkKlansman but strong competition from The Favourite
What shouldn't be nominated- Bohemian Rhapsody

Best Production Design
The nominees
Mary Poppins Returns
Black Panther
First Man
Roma
The Favourite

What should win- Black Panther
What will likely win- Black Panther or The Favourite

Best Costumes
The nominees
Mary Poppins Returns
Black Panther
Mary Queen of Scots
The Ballad of Buster Scruggs
The Favourite

What should win- Black Panther
What will likely win- Black Panther or The Favourite
What shouldn't be nominated- Mary Queen of Scots

Best Hair and Make-Up
The nominees
Mary Queen of Scots
Vice
Border

What should win- Vice
What will likely win- Vice
What shouldn't be nominated and I will be enraged if wins- Mary Queen of Scots (some of the worst hair and make up of the year in my opinion)

Best Original Score
The nominees
Mary Poppins Returns
Isle of Dogs
Black Panther
BlacKkKlansman
If Beale Street Could Talk

What should win- Black Panther
What will likely win- Black Panther 

Best Original Song
The nominees
All the stars from Black Panther
Shallow from A Star is Born
The Place Where The Lost Things Go from Mary Poppins Returns
I'll Fight from RBG
When A Cowboy Trades His Spurs for Wings from The Ballad of Buster Scruggs

What should win- All The Stars
What will likely win- Shallow


Best Sound Mix
The nominees
First Man
Black Panther
A Star is Born
Bohemian Rhapsody
Roma

What should win- First Man (I haven't seen it but the sound mix is supposed to be outstanding) or Black Panther
What will likely win- First Man

Best Sound Editing
The nominees
Black Panther
A Quiet Place
Roma 
First Man
Bohemian Rhapsody

What should win- A Quiet Place
What will likely win- basically they are nuts if A Quiet Place doesn't win but First Man might sneak in and win

Best Visual Effects
The nominees
Avengers: Infinity War
First Man
Christopher Robin
Ready Player One
Solo: A Star Wars Story

What should win- of this list, Avengers
What will likely win- Avengers or First Man
What shouldn't be nominated- Ready Player One (it was awful) or Solo (it was fine but visually not outstanding)
What should be nominated but isn't- Annihilation and Black Panther. It is insane that Annihilation is not nominated...WHY academy why?!?!

Best animation
The nominees
Mirai
Incredibles 2
Ralph Breaks the Internet
Isle of Dogs
Spiderman: Into the Spiderverse

What should win- Spiderman: Into the Spiderverse
What will likely win- Spiderman: Into the Spiderverse

Best Foreign Film
The nominees
Roma
Cold War
Shoplifters
Capernaum
Never Look Away

Not seen Capernaum (it looks outstanding but isn't out yet in Australia ) or Never Look Away (haven't even seen the trailer)

What should win- Roma (can't back it for best film overall and not here even if I enjoyed Cold War more- as a piece of cinematic art,  Roma is better)
What will likely win- Roma
What should also be nominated- The Burning (you don't need to drop any of the current nominees, just add it)

Shorts and docos... I have seen zero of the nominated shorts and only one nominated doco so I cannot make a firm call. That said, I'm deeply hoping that RBG wins best doco!

And predictions done...