So let's try this again... I last did it five years ago.
Things to flag up front that I've not seen are The Zone of Interest, American Fiction, May December (which you are oddly going to see me barrack for), and The Holdovers. The first three of these aren't out in Australia yet and The Holdovers only just is (I nearly saw it this afternoon but opted to see Anatomy of a Fall instead).
I will have some big themes of this post. The first of which will be me yelling at the Academy for once again failing to support female directed, female written, and to be honest even just female focused films. The second is that it will seem to be me laying into Killers of the Flower Moon. I feel I need to say upfront that I don't think it is poorly made- on a Scorsese scale, I would watch it multiple times again before I rewatched Gangs of New York. I just think it was a tad miscast, 45 minutes too long, and focused on the wrong people (I'm reading the book on which it is based at the minute and that is just making me more annoyed about the focus of the film as it isn't the focus of the book). Also TBH I lay into Maestro a bit too but I honestly think there is only about one category where its nomination was warranted.
Final thing up front, I will not be predicting the following as I have not seen enough of the nominees to make a call- actually I've seen none of the nominees- documentary, any short film categories, or oddly visual effects.
Let's go....
Best Picture
Nominees
American Fiction
Anatomy of a Fall
Barbie
Killers of the Flower Moon
Maestro
Oppenheimer
Past Lives
Poor Things
The Holdovers
- Shouldn't be nominated in my opinion- Killers of the Flower Moon and Maestro (I liked Maestro but I'm not a biopic person and it was good not great in my opinion)
- What should have been nominated and isn't- All of Us Strangers
- What I would like to see win- Past Lives (TBH I would be OK with all of the nominees in this category except the two I think shouldn't be nominated winning)
- What will win- I could see a shock win from The Holdovers or Anatomy of a Fall but really this is Oppenheimer's to lose. I think Oppenheimer is going to clean up on the night in fact.
Best Lead Actor
Nominees
Bradley Cooper- Maestro
Cillian Murphy- Oppenheimer
Colman Domingo- Rustin
Jeffrey Wright- American Fiction
Paul Giamatti- The Holdovers
- Shouldn't be nominated in my opinion- Bradley Cooper (gosh the Academy loves a biopic- though I will say the other two biopic nominations in this category are deserved). Also just to say as people are saying it was a snub, the Academy was right to not nominate Leonardo diCaprio as he was the most miscast person in Killers of the Flower Moon.
- Who should have been nominated and isn't- Andrew Scott for All of Us Strangers mostly but also would not have hated a nomination for Barry Keough for Saltburn or Zac Efron for The Iron Claw
- Who would I like to see win- Cillian Murphy- yes flying in the face of my dislike of biopics
- Who will win- Cillian Murphy though I'm hearing that Paul Giamatti might sneak a win
Best Lead Actress
Nominees
Annette Bening- Nyad
Carey Mulligan- Maestro
Emma Stone- Poor Things
Lily Gladstone- Killers of the Flower Moon
Sandra Huller- Anatomy of a Fall
- Shouldn't be nominated in my opinion- I'm about to get to it with the who should be nominated, but I would not have wanted to be honing choices in this category as there were some amazing lead performances by women in 2023. I've not see Nyad but the other four were definitely worthy of nomination and I'm not going to kick Annette Bening out of any group of nominees.
- Who should have been nominated and isn't- GRETA LEE for Past Lives (I think until we get to the direction category and just wait, this (and one person in supporting actress) oversight is in my opinion the big snub of the Oscars this year), Cailee Spaeny for Priscilla, (from what I hear) either or both of Natalie Portman and Julianne Moore for May December, and Margot Robbie for Barbie. Insert my rant about female lead or focused films as with the exception of Huller and Bening (who was a shock nomination in a film not many people have seen), you have three male directed films, two of which focus on men instead of women (Poor Things is female focused), one of which sidelines its lead actress when it shouldn't (yes I mean Killers of the Flower Moon). Past Lives, Priscilla, and Barbie all overlooked in this category are works of WOMEN, and May December though not directed by a woman is written by one and is strongly focused on a relationship between two women. I should say though I would have liked a Robbie nomination, she is not my biggest snub in this category- that is definitely Greta Lee.
- Who I would like to see win- I'm torn as I think Emma Stone gives a career best performance in Poor Things, I think you can't take your eyes off Sandra Huller in Anatomy of a Fall, and I think Lily Gladstone is exceptional in Killers of the Flower Moon (far and away the best thing about the film). Emma Stone's performance was my favourite of the three in the end.
- Who will win- Gladstone, especially if Paul Giamatti pips Cillian Murphy for lead actor, as there is no way they will award comedies in both lead acting categories (that would be wild and is unfortunate for Emma Stone that this is the way the Oscars tend to work). Gladstone winning will be well deserved as it was the best dramatic performance of the nominated women and it will be nice to see a first nations person win in a lead acting category.
Supporting Actor
Nominees
Mark Ruffalo- Poor Things
Robert de Niro- Killers of the Flower Moon
Robert Downey Jr- Oppenheimer
Ryan Gosling- Barbie
Sterling K Brown- American Fiction
- Shouldn't be nominated in my opinion- do I need to say it? It is de Niro for Killers of the Flower Moon. The performance is better than diCaprio's and is a good one but I just think there were more worthy nominees- also the more I read the book on which it is based, the more I think de Niro was also miscast.
- Who should be nomination and isn't- Paul Mescal for All of Us Strangers, (based on what I'm hearing about the film) Charles Melton for May December, Willem Dafoe for Poor Things, and Jacob Elordi for Priscilla (this performance has been slept on this award season (the whole film has been) and I think it is outstanding).
- Who I want to watch- Ryan Gosling- this is one of the a few categories I would love to see a Barbie win in- or Mark Ruffalo
- Who will win- Robert Downey Jr and that isn't undeserved as he is great in Oppenheimer but I would love them to shake things up and show comedies some love.
Supporting Actress
Nominees
America Ferrera- Barbie
Da'Vine Joy Randolph- The Holdovers
Danielle Brooks- The Color Purple
Emily Blunt- Oppenheimer
Jodie Foster- Nyad
Before I say anything, did you see that??? An Oscars acting nomination list in a category with more people of colour nominated than white folk...love it!
- Shouldn't be nominated in my opinion- Emily Blunt. I love Emily Blunt but Nolan famously cannot write substantial female characters and she is barely in the film. She does what she can with it but seriously as much as I'm going to say Oppenheimer will/should win things, definitely none of these relate to the female roles in the film which is massive Bechdel test fail.
- Who should be nominated but isn't- WHERE is Rosamund Pike's nomination??? Seriously how can you nominate Oppenheimer in a category for female roles and ignore the absolute killer of a performance by Rosamund Pike in Saltburn? It was one of my favourite performance of the year and the lack of a nomination is a straight up travesty! Also just to say again role in female written and directed film missing out!
- Who I want to win- Rosamund Pike but that ship has sailed. Of the actual nominees, I think I will pass on giving a strong opinion because as much as I love America Ferrera in Barbie, I've not seen three of the other performances- so I guess anyone but Emily Blunt which is something I hate to say.
- Who will win- this is why I think RDJ will take out supporting actor over Gosling and Ruffalo as I suspect this is where they award a comedy and based on what I seeing from other ceremonies, I suspect Da'Vine Joy Randolph has a bit of a lock on this.
Directing
I don't even want to list the nominees as I'm so disappointed by the nomination list but sigh I guess I will...
Nominees
Christopher Nolan- Oppenheimer
Jonathan Glazer- The Zone of Interest
Justine Triet- Anatomy of a Fall
Martin Scorsese- Killers of the Flower Moon
Yorgos Lanthimos- Poor Things
- Shouldn't be nominated in my opinion- seriously Oscars just because Martin Scorsese makes a film doesn't mean you have to nominate it in so many categories. Just no to Killers of the Flower Moon yet again.
- Who should be nominated but isn't- ALL the women! I cannot believe that Greta Gerwig (for Barbie) and Celine Song (for Past Lives) are not nominated. Especially the Gerwig snub makes me so frustrated with the Oscars tendency to nominate the same men year after year after year. I thought Gerwig did a better job than all nominees and Celine Song than most of them. I would also not have been sad about a nomination for Sofia Coppola for Priscilla.
- Who I want to win- like in the last category, someone who isn't nominated. This time Great Gerwig. Of the actual nominees, I would love Justine Triet to bring it home for the women or otherwise for Yorgos Lanthimos to win.
- Who will win- Nolan. It is Nolan's to lose as the Academy do love a white man- that is a tad harsh as he did do quite a good job.
Best Original Screenplay
Nominees
Anatomy of a Fall
Maestro
May December
Past Lives
The Holdovers
Points to the academy on this one, finally women!
- Shouldn't be nominated in my opinion- Maestro. The strongest part of Maestro was its lead actress (oddly just like Killers of the Flower Moon) and I basically don't remember the script at all.
- Should be nominated but isn't- well it is but it is in the wrong damn category. Being about an existing doll does not make you not original, Academy! I think adapted is a stronger category this year and I think Barbie would have romped home in original. Also I would also been onboard with a nominations for The Boy and the Heron and Saltburn.
- What I want to win- Past Lives or Anatomy of a Fall
- What will win- I think The Holdovers is likely to getting acting nods, this might be where Past Lives or Anatomy of a Fall gets their moment- though those are written by women so maybe The Holdovers will win.
Best Adapted Screenplay
Nominees
American Fiction
Barbie
Oppenheimer
Poor Things
The Zone of Interest
- Shouldn't be nominated in my opinion- Oppenheimer's script is fine but not great....and also just damned happy they didn't nominate Killers of the Flower Moon. Also again Barbie should be in the original not adapted category (TBH though just happy it has a screenplay nominations as it was the best script of the year in my opinion)
- Should be nominated but isn't- this category is tight as it is but I wouldn't have minded a nomination for All of Us Strangers or Priscilla
- What I want to win- Barbie
- What will win- Barbie (if they know what's good for them)
Cinematography
Nominees
El Conde
Killers of the Flower Moon
Maestro
Oppenheimer
Poor Things
Now I've never heard of El Conde which is odd come Oscar season
- Shouldn't be nominated in my opinion- Maestro- it truly is the Bohemian Rhapsody of this Oscars (i.e. nominated way too much). Being partly in black and white isn't a reason to win for cinematography.
- Should be nominated but isn't- I've only seen the trailers but going off them Zone of Interest
- What I want to win- Poor Things
- What will win- Oppenheimer- though I also would not be shocked by a Killers of the Flower Moon win as cinematography is one of the films strong points
Film Editing
Nominees
Anatomy of a Fall
Killers of the Flower Moon
Oppenheimer
Poor Things
The Holdovers
-Shouldn't be nominated in my opinion- if you are 45 minutes too long, you are not well edited- yes I'm once again talking about Killers of the Flower Moon
- Should be nominated but isn't- Priscilla. I mean the list is fine once you get rid of Killers of the Flower Moon, but if you need to add something.
- What I want to win- Poor Things or Anatomy of a Fall
- What will win- I could see Poor Things or Anatomy of a Fall taking it, but again this one might be Oppenheimer's to lose
Production Design
Nominees
Barbie
Killers of the Flower Moon
Napoleon
Oppenheimer
Poor Things
- Shouldn't be nominated in my opinion- I've not seen Napoleon but honestly I don't have any issues with this list
- Should be nominated but isn't- would not have hated nominations for Priscilla and Saltburn
- What I want to win- Poor Things
- What will win- Oppenheimer or Poor Things or maybe even Barbie
Costume Design
Nominees are the same as for production design
- Shouldn't be nominated but isn't- again maybe not Napoleon but can't really comment
- Should be nominated but isn't- Priscilla. Also going to go out on a limb and say The Iron Claw
- What I want to win- Barbie
- What will win- Barbie (yep going hard for Barbie here and likely to be disappointed)
Sound
Nominees
Maestro
Mission Impossible: Dead Reckoning Part One
Oppenheimer
The Creator
The Zone of Interest
Skipping all the normal things here as I've only seen two of the films and just saying that the film I want to win this and likely will win it is....Oppenheimer
Makeup and Hairstyling
Nominees
Golda
Maestro
Oppenheimer
Poor Things
Society of the Snow
- Shouldn't be nominated in my opinion- Maestro AND Oppenheimer (which granted are two of the three films on the list I've actually seen)
- Should be nominated but isn't- Priscilla and Barbie
- What I want to win- Poor Things
- What will win- Poor Things
Score
Nominees
American Fiction
Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny
Killers of the Flower Moon
Oppenheimer
Poor Things
Not adding any shouldn't or should to this as I'm OK with it.
- What I want to win- much as I love the score of Poor Things, the Oppenheimer score was insanely good (when I left the cinema the day I saw it, score was the one thing I was certain it had an Oscar lock on) and you should never sleep on a Ludwig Goransson score (no shade to the film composer icon that is John Williams who much as I didn't hate the Dial of Destiny score, it is clearly nominated because he is John Williams).
- What will win- Oppenheimer
Original Song
It Never Went Away from American Symphony
What Was I Made For? from Barbie
I'm Just Ken from Barbie
The Fire Inside from Flamin' Hot
Wahzhazhe (A Song for my People) from Killers of the Flower Moon
- Shouldn't be nominated in my opinion- I don't know two of the songs so refraining from comment on that
- Should be nominated but isn't- Dance the Night Away from Barbie....honestly just the whole Barbie soundtrack
- What I want to win- I'm Just Ken
- What will win- What Was I Made For? Barbie has had a hard lock on best song with no musical Disney film making a splash in 2023 and much as I'm Just Ken is my sentimental pick for the award, What Was I Made For? is musically the better song
Animated Film
Nominees
Elemental
Nimona
Robot Dreams
Spider-Man: Across the Spider Verse
The Boy and the Heron
Making it short- The Boy and the Heron should and likely will win but Across the Spider Verse might sneak in as a dark horse contender.
International film
Nominees
Io capitano
Perfect Days
Society of the Snow
The Teacher's Lounge
The Zone of Interest
Not going to say anything should or shouldn't be nominated but it is interesting that two of the best international films of 2023/4 aren't here in Anatomy of a Fall (likely due to the fact it is in other categories and also despite being a French film is often in English) and The Boy and the Heron (because it is animation- also it getting in would have pushed Perfect Days out which would have made me sad). Also odd no nomination for Fallen Leaves.
What I want to win- not having seen The Zone of Interest yet, I'm saying Perfect Days for now
What will win- The Zone of Interest
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And that is Clare predicting Oscars and ranting about the sexism for the Academy done...for now... let's see what ends up happening on the night
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